This week, there is a strategy that can yield high finishes for your DraftKings lineups. Using fantasy sports lingo, we are going to “make a few contrarian plays to exploit the recency bias of a few players.” Now before you tune me out for using some big words, let me explain. Think of recency bias like this: people will be more likely to pick players who did well in the last week or two or have a lot of media hype. Being contrarian means picking a few players who are expected to be lower-owned as opposed to picking the same highly-owned players as everyone else. I'm not saying pick all 6 “contrarian” players, but sprinkling a few of them into your lineup can pay massive dividends. Here are my favorite “contrarian plays” that could differentiate your lineup from the masses.
DraftKings Salary: $6,300
It’s rare to see Lucas Glover on anyone’s radar, but he is quietly having a good 2016 campaign, making the cut in his past 4 starts. The former U.S. Open champ has a great track record at Quail Hollow with a win, a 2nd place finish, and 3 other top 30s in his past 7 appearances at the event. I expect Glover to outplay last week’s story, Bobby Wyatt, who is similarly priced and will carry a much higher ownership percentage.
DraftKings Salary: $7,900
There are a ton of players that fall within the $7,600-$8,100 range, so making the right choice could lead to you walking away with the cash. This is where our contrarian strategy is going to come into play the most. I expect the popular picks here to be Jamie Lovemark and Bryson DeChambeau. Lovemark because of his runner-up finish last week, and DeChambeau because of the media hype machine he is driving.
A player I really like is Kevin Chappell, who has 3 top-10 finishes in his past 4 starts and top-16 finishes in his past two starts at the Wells Fargo. Need an extra kicker? Quail Hollow is known as a course that rewards ball striking, and Chappell ranks 16th on Tour in the strokes gained: tee-to-green statistic.
DraftKings Salary: $7,900
Here’s why I like Webb Simpson, Quail Hollow is his home course. In fact, he lives on it and, as you would expect, has a great track record here. Last year, Simpson was the runner-up and has five straight top-40 finishes at the event. 2015 was a tough year for the former U.S. Open Champion, but 2016 has seen his game turn around. Simpson has made 6 of 7 cuts in the calendar year.
DraftKings Salary: $9,300
With fan favorite Phil Mickelson at a similar price and his stellar record at this course, many players will choose him over Matsuyama. While Mickelson is a very good pick, Matsuyama could give you a little more upside because of a lower ownership percentage. The Japanese star is enjoying a breakout season with a win and seven other top 20s in his 10 starts. The key to his game? Ball striking. Matsuyama ranks 5th in the strokes gained: tee-to-green statistic.