Paulie's Picks: 2018 John Deere Classic

This week, the Tour heads to the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. Players who succeed on this course tend to have their approach games and putting firing on all cylinders. We have seen a large number of players have long stretches of historical success at this track. I expect it to be no different this week. 

Here is some insight for DraftKings and One-and-Done leagues: 

DraftKings:

Start:

Kyle Stanley $9,700

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Stanley may be a bit overlooked this week on DraftKings. Many people will be looking to roster players with similar prices such as Niemann and Hadley. Stanley has had a sneaky good year with two top-5 finishes, including a playoff loss at the Memorial. He has made seven out of eight cuts at this event and has shown the ability to contend (2nd in 2011). I don’t necessarily think he will outplay some of the top studs this week, but he makes for a very interesting pivot in large tournaments as the upside is definitely there.

Fade:

Chesson Hadley $9,500

Hadley projects to be one of the highest-owned players of the week, but I’m not buying it. Hadley’s record in this event has been lackluster (25th, MC, MC). People will see that he has finished in the top 20 in seven of his last ten events. People will also look at his recent stats for approach and putting and think that he is a good fit for the course this week. However, if we dig deeper, we have some reason to be cautious. Most of his putting success has come on bermuda, which is not the grass found on the greens this week. He has lost 1.7 strokes putting in his 8 career rounds at this event. Additionally, TPC Deere Run yields a lot of 10-20 foot birdie putts. Hadley has lost strokes putting from that distance over his last five events. 

Francesco Molinari  $11,600

I would not be surprised to see a missed cut out of Molinari this week as he looks ahead to the Open Championship next week. Even though he is the highest priced player, I expect ownership to be high due to his dominating win last time out. I’d much rather play some of the other top guys than play a 20% owned Molinari at $11,600.

One-and-Done:

Zach Johnson

If you are near the top of your league, there is no need to get fancy this week. Just eat the Zach Johnson chalk and stay near the top. Johnson has finished in the top five in seven of the last nine years.

Ryan Moore

If you need to make a move up the standings in your league, Ryan Moore is a solid option this week. I think Moore goes overlooked and will come in with low ownership in One-and-Done leagues. He has played well at TPC Deere Run with three top 10s in the last six years, including a win in 2016. Moore is hitting his irons amazing right now (gaining 29 shots over his last eight events).