Paulie's Picks: 2018 Fort Worth Invitational

The Tour makes the short trek from Dallas to Fort Worth this week for the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial. Colonial is an old school and historic course that puts an emphasis on ball striking. The tight tree-lined doglegs place an emphasis on players’ ability to hit their tee ball in the correct position and work their irons both ways. The field this year is very solid as it includes stars such as Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, etc. We could be in for a treat come the weekend if a few of them are on the front page of the leaderboard.

DraftKings

Jon Rahm $11,000

Rahm plays Colonial differently than most players. He plays it very aggressively by hitting driver on many of the par 4s. By doing this, he has a much larger upside on Draftkings because of increased birdie chances. This might be a risky play, but if he has the driver dialed in, I could see him making over 20 birdies this week.

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Bryson Dechambeau $8,800

Dechambeau is a very good fit for this course. His combination of solid driving and elite approach game should have him in contention this week. He has gained 20 strokes on approach over his last four events. He has been playing well lately, finishing in the top 5 in three of his last five events. I’m hoping that he is low-owned this week if people shy away from him after seeing that he has missed his last two cuts at this event.

Rory Sabbatini $7,600

I’ll be riding the hot hand of Rory Sabbatini this week. He hasn’t missed a cut in 2018 and has recorded four straight top 30 finishes. During those four events, he has recorded 68 birdies! The Fort Worth resident also won this event in 2007.

One-and-Done

Emiliano Grillo

This course seems to be tailor made for Grillo. His success is built on a solid off-the-tee game combined with one of the best iron games on Tour. He has gained at least 2 shots on approach in seven of his last eight events. Even though past results here may not show it (24th and 55th), he also has openly said that this event is one of his favorites on Tour. 

Adam Hadwin

Hadwin is another player whose game fits the Dechambeau/Grillo mold of solid off-the-tee combined with great iron play. He has gained 19 shots on approach over his last five events.

Kevin Kisner

Kisner is yet another player that fits that mold mentioned above. He also has a great track record at Colonial with top 10 finishes in his last three years, including a win in 2017.

Longshots

Shubankar Sharma (160-1 to win)

Sharma should enter this week refreshed after a few weeks off. He has succeeded on the European Tour this year on a few tracks that are eerily similar to Colonial. At 160-1, I’m willing to take a chance on a player who has won twice in the last six months.

Patton Kizzire (250-1 to win)

Once again, I’m hopping aboard the Patton Kizzire train. I can’t ignore him at this price. He has won twice on Tour this season already! Both of these wins came on courses that often required layups off the tee and a stellar iron game (OHL Classic at Mayakoba and Sony Open).