Paulie's Picks: 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

This week is some of the softest pricing I have ever seen on DraftKings. Russell Henley is priced below Mike Weir! Also, red-hot rookie Austin Cook and European stalwart Rafa Cabrera Bello are priced below Eric Axley. It’s going to create some high ownership percentages on certain players and overlap in many large field tournament lineups. Let’s break down a few of players I expect to see with high ownership and some ones I expect to see with lower ownership that you should consider. 

Draftkings

Players with expected high ownership:

Austin Cook $7,000

Cook is criminally underpriced. He was over $1,000 more expensive last week in a stronger field with a worse course fit for him. He has finished in the top 50 in all eight starts this year including a win at the RSM.

Rafa Cabrera Bello $6,900

Cabrera Bello, the world’s 21st ranked player, is mispriced by $2,000 in my eyes. He is coming into this event in good form finishing sixth in his last event in Dubai. The decision to roster him or not might be the deciding factor in large tournaments this week.

Russell Henley $6,600

Henley, the world’s 56th ranked player, comes into this event having missed his last two cuts. His form might be poor, but his upside at this price is tough to pass.

Players with smaller expected ownership:

Screen Shot 2018-02-06 at 11.06.47 AM.png

Graeme McDowell $6,600 (80-1 to win, 8-1 top 10)

McDowell is a perfect pivot off of Russell Henley. McDowell hadn’t played this event since 2014 when he finished seventh. He also captured the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. He is one of my favorite value bets of the week at 80-1 to win and 8-1 to record a top 10 finish.

Vaughn Taylor $6,900 (100-1 to win, 10-1 top 10)

Taylor is a good pivot off of Cabrera-Bello or Cook. He finished in a tie for 11th last week and now returns to an event that has treated him well. He won here in 2016 and finished 10th in 2015. He is my other favorite value bet this week at 100-1 to win and 10-1 to record a top 10 finish.

One-and-Done:

This is a bit of a weird week for One-and-Done. We have enough studs at the top that I’m not sure it is worth burning one of them this week because a victory or top five finish is not guaranteed for anyone.

Phil Mickelson

Phil seemed to find his game last week and heads to an event that he has won four times. He is a very good option this week as he provides the upside of a top-five finish yet you get to keep your studs for future weeks.

Paul Casey

Casey is another potential option which provides top-five upside. He hasn’t played this event in over 15 years, so we don’t have any course history to go on. However, Casey’s precise iron game should fit these courses very well. With it being a Ryder Cup year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Casey play a little bit less in the US this year which means this may be one of the few viable times to use him.

Patrick Reed

Reed finally found his iron game and putter last week. He finished 17th even though he lost shots to the field off of the tee. He now heads to an event with wider than average landing areas and many holes that will require layups off the tee. I expect Reed to continue his streak of five consecutive top 30s at this event.

 

Love golf? Never miss a beat by signing up for our newsletter.