Paulie's Picks: 2017 Tour Championship

The top 30 players in the FedEx Cup head to Georgia for the Tour Championship. This marks the Tour’s final event of the 2016-2017 schedule. With such a small field, each fantasy decision is even more important. With the event being hosted at East Lake every year, we have some course history. However, I’m more likely to rely on recent form, long term form and course fit.

DraftKings:

The most important aspect this week is predicting ownership percentages. With so few players picking players with lower ownership can pay dividends. It entails slightly more risk but will pay big dividends if they hit, especially in big tournaments.

Hideki Matsuyama $9,000

I think Hideki is awkwardly priced this week. He is between Thomas, Rahm, Rose, Casey and Leishman all of whom I expect to attract a large ownership this week. Matsuyama recent form isn’t outstanding, but he is only a month removed from his dominant win at the WGC Bridgestone and he finished fifth at East Lake in 2016. I think he will be under 15% owned which provides plenty of upside to your lineup should he win come Sunday.

The par 3 17th at Conway Farms

Russell Henley $6,600

Henley is a very risky play this week as there is a chance he finishes in the bottom five. However, when Henley plays well he can beat anyone. Henley played college golf at Georgia and is very familiar with East Lake. He is also a birdie machine which helps his DK score. I expect Berger, Schauffele and Finau to have higher ownership than Henley in that salary tier and wouldn’t be surprised to see Henley on a DK tournament winning lineup.


One-and Done

This final week is all about strategy. If you are leading your league, I would take a look and see who the people below you have left and see if there are any obvious choices for them to make. If so, you might be able to block them if you have the same player available. Be careful with this strategy if there are a lot of people close to you. If you are not leading your league, I suggest taking a look at who the people above you have left. It is key for you to not choose the same player so you can still have a chance to leapfrog them in the standings. I like taking a risky pick this week. The difference between last and 10th last year in payouts at East Lake was only $81k and last place paid out $137k. So I don’t mind taking a risky guy who I might be the only guy to pick as we have seen some players like Bill Haas or Jim Furyk surprise at this event. One example of a risky player to take this week is:

Brian Harman

Harman showed his ability to contend in big events at this year’s US Open. He is another guy who played at Georgia and is familiar with East Lake even though he is a Tour Championship rookie. I don’t expect anyone to be on him in your league and you most likely have him available. If you need a winner to jump up in the standings, Harman is a good choice.

 

 

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