This week, the Tour heads to the Quicken Loans National hosted at the renovated TPC Potomac (formerly TPC Avenel). A few things to consider this week are the very weak field and only 120 players are in the field since it is an invitational. Additionally, there has not been a PGA Tour event at this course since the renovation (note: there were two Web.com events). I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone capture their first victory this week.
With such a weak field, I expect the average player to roster the popular players heavily. With that being said, we might want to differentiate our tournament lineups by pivoting to a few lower owned players who have a lot of upside.
David Lingmerth $8,500
Never would I think that at $8,500 I would be advocating playing David Lingmerth, but here we are. The average fan will scroll right past him, but I expect the savvy players to roster him this week. He has recorded four straight top 26s and won a Web.com event here at TPC Potomac. TPC Potomac appears to be a bit like Muirfield Village as it requires precise approach shots to undulating greens meanwhile having firm fairways. Lingmerth has won there as well. You can tell the wise guys are on Lingmerth this week as his Vegas odds to win are 28-1!!
James Hahn $7,600
I expect Hahn to be low owned this week and passed over by the general public. Hahn plays really well on difficult tracks where par is valuable. I expect the winning score to be around -10 this week. Hahn has two victories on Tour at difficult tracks (Quail Hollow and Riviera). He is familiar with the course as he was in contention in one of the two Web.com events held at TPC Potomac. He is fresh off of a third place at the Memorial (Muirfield Village) and finished sixth at the Byron Nelson a few weeks prior to that. Interestingly enough, he had these high finishes while not even putting well. If he can get his putter going watch out!!!
Si Woo Kim $7,500
Kim is the ultimate boom or bust play but his price is very enticing this week at $7,500. When Kim plays well, he can dominate a field and win. When he doesn’t play well he often WDs and ruins your entire lineup. Since so many people have been burned by Kim, I think he might be low owned this week (under 10%). He finished 13th at the US Open and has the tee to green game to excel at this track. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kim in the winning DK lineup at week’s end.
Adam Hadwin $6,900
At first glance Hadwin appears to be one of the best values on the board. However, I suggest avoiding him for large tournaments on DK. There are not many viable options under $7,000 and I expect his ownership to be 20%+. Even though he has only missed one cut all year, he hasn’t had a top 20 finish since mid-March. He is near the bottom on Tour for Strokes Gained Tee to Green over the past few months. This may cause him issues at TPC Potomac this week. He has been hanging around the cut line every week lately (made cut on number at Travelers, made by four at US Open, MC at Memorial, made by three at Colonial). He doesn’t have enough upside to roster in tournaments with 20%+ ownership in my opinion.
Steele has been Mr. Consistency of late, making every cut and often finishing in the top 20. In a weak field, I expect him to rack up another top 20 this week. He is one of the best plays this week if you don’t want to use Fowler or Thomas.
Haas is a grinder who succeeds on difficult tracks. He has shown some life lately as evidenced by his three straight top 25s including a fifth at the US Open. If you have him left, now is a good time to use him.
See DK section above.
David Hearn 85-1 to win
Hearn has found his game of late as shown by back to back top 10s at the Travelers and St. Jude. He tends to plod along and grind out a bunch of pars. He is pretty much a poor man’s Bill Haas. At 85/1, he is at least worth a look this week.