Paulie's Picks: 2017 Northern Trust

This week, the Tour heads to the Northern Trust at the newly renovated Glen Oaks Club. It’s one of the best manicured courses in the area. Their superintendent, Craig Currier, has previously worked at both Augusta National and Bethpage Black. It is not your traditional New York layout, it is fairly open off of the tee and has many closely mown green surrounds. Even though the course appears long as a 7,300 yard par 70, I expect it to play shorter due to the fast and firm conditions and the width which allows driver to be hit on most holes.

DraftKings:

Tony Finau $7,300

Finau is the best value on the board this week. He should be about $8,000. He is playing well of late and has finished in the top 50 in his last nine events. Finau is known for his length and ability to overpower courses. I like his fit this week as he can have wedges into the short par fours. He also has one of the highest birdie rates which helps your team’s score on DK.

Justin Rose $8,300

I’m buying low on Justin Rose. I will admit that it seems like he is in a “slump”. He has finished outside the top 50 at the Open Championship, PGA and Bridgestone. However, this “slump” has dropped his salary down $1,000+ and most likely will drop his ownership under 10%. Let’s not forget that four months ago, Rose almost put on the green jacket. On a course that rewards a solid tee to green game, I’m willing to roll with Rose as a high upside play in DK tournaments.

Dustin Johnson $10,800

DJ is another good value buy. Despite being the fifth highest salary, I think he has the most upside of any player in the field. When he has his driver dialed in, he is almost unbeatable and fills the scorecard up with birdies. I think the openness off the tee will allow DJ to let the driver fly and take advantage of his length. People have the common misconception that DJ isn’t playing great right now. However, he has finished eighth, 13th and 18th in his last three starts.

One-and-Done

Jordan Spieth

With enough room off the tee and some Augusta-like green concepts, I think Spieth will be contending on Sunday. If you still have him left, this week is a good time to use him as he looks to position himself to win the FedEx Cup.

Paul Casey

Casey is a viable option that many people still have available in their league. He has 10 straight top 26 finishes highlighted by four straight top 13s. Known for his precise iron game, Casey should be able to be near the top come Sunday. It just depends if he can get a hot putter.

Charley Hoffman

Hoffman should be a pick that is low owned in your league this week. He has top threes in two of his last three starts. As one of the best overall drivers over the last few months, Hoffman should be able to show off that skill since driver will be required on most holes.

Longshots to Win:

Brian Harman (100-1 to win)

Harman is a good value at 100-1 this week. Harman has shown up on the biggest of stages this year. He finished second at the US Open and 13th at the PGA. When he plays well, he is at the top and knows how to finish. Anyone remember that finish at the Wells Fargo earlier this year?

Jimmy Walker (150-1 to win, 14-1 top 10)

Is Jimmy Walker really 150-1 to win? Walker’s weakness is driving accuracy which shouldn’t be that big of an issue this week. He is a proven winner on Tour especially in big events. Walker showed some flashes of brilliance recently in the opening rounds at Firestone which is a similar long par 70 course  I’m more than willing to toss a few shekels on him at 150-1.
 

 

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