Paulie's Picks: 2017 Genesis Open

Wow, what a field we have this week at Riviera!!! This almost feels like a major with so many of the top players in attendance and on top of their games. That will make fantasy golf very difficult this week whether on DraftKings or One-and-Done. Here are some players to focus on:

The divisive 10th hole at Riviera. Photo Credit: Jon Cavalier @linksgems

DraftKings

Justin Rose $8,400

Rose is a perfect veteran fit for this golf course which rewards solid ball striking. He has 3 top 20s in his last 4 appearances. Some people may be pushed away from Rose after his lackluster 39th finish at Pebble. Don't forget that prior to last week, he had back to back top 4 finishes. Look for Rose to rack up a top ten this week with a lot of birdies.

J.B. Holmes $7,100

One of the metrics I analyze each week is the difference between a player's DK price and his Vegas odds to win. This week, Holmes is the 46th most expensive golfer but has the 13th best odds to win!!! That is a very large discrepancy. When building your lineup for a DK tournament you need to roster players like Holmes who have massive upside. Holmes has 4 top 12's in his last 7 appearances. He has been close to breaking out as he has finished between 23rd and 35th in his last 5 starts...just enough under the radar for the average fan to not realize. With Holmes’ firepower and ability to make birdies by the bunches, he is one of the top plays of the week.

Brooks Koepka $7,100

Koepka is the player with the second largest differential in terms of Vegas odds in comparison to DK salary. Like Holmes, he has the 46th most expensive salary but has the 14th best odds to win. Due to his few lackluster outings this year, his price has dropped to an absurdly low level for a guy who can win any week. Pair him with Holmes in your lineups and hope to hit the jackpot

One-and-Done

I'd like to start off by thanking Phil for dropping from 14th after 63 holes to 65th after 72 holes due to his back 9 collapse last week. That cost many One-and-Doners like myself the potential for a small little payday which can add up at the end of the year. Anyways, this week is very difficult to choose since we have so many of the top players. Do we decide to burn one of our top picks for such a star-studded event? Do we save them for majors? Here are 3 players to consider:

Sergio Garcia

Fresh off his victory in Dubai, Sergio looks to pad his already good resume at Riviera. He has 3 top 15's in his last 4 starts at Riviera highlighted by a pair of 4th place finishes. The only question regarding rostering Garcia this week is whether you want to save him for another event such as the Players. Tough choice.

Dustin Johnson

All the signs point to Dustin Johnson this week, but can we really choose one of our top players in a non-major? DJ has 5 top 5's in his last 7 appearances at Riviera. On top of that, he has 3 top 6's in his last 4 worldwide starts highlighted by a 3rd last week at Pebble. Do we play DJ this week in a stacked field or do we save him for some of the higher purse events such as the Majors or WGC events? Very difficult decision.

Bubba Watson

Watson has played terrible over the past few months, but you can't ignore his course history here. He has won 2 of the past 3 years and may be a viable punt play this week if you don't want to use a top stud.

Longshot:

Thomas Pieters 90-1

Pieters has a huge amount of upside. He won the 2012 NCAA Individual Championship at Riviera over a field that included the likes of Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas. He has proven that when he plays well, he can compete with the best players in the world, as evidenced by his stout Ryder Cup performance (4-1) and hot streak late in 2016 where he finished 4th in the Olympics and then finished 2nd and 1st in his following two starts. At a course where he has great memories and length and ball striking pay dividends, Pieters could surprise.

 

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