Paulie's Picks: 2017 AT&T Byron Nelson

This week, the Tour heads to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson at Las Colinas. The field is surprisingly strong given the fact that the Players was last week. With players such as DJ, Spieth, Day, Garcia and Koepka participating it will make it difficult to decide which (if any) of the studs to use this week whether on DraftKings or in your One-and-Done league.

DraftKings

Ryan Moore $7,600 (40-1 to win)

He is the most underpriced player on the DK board at $7,600. According to Las Vegas, he has the 11th best chance of winning this week, yet is the 23rd highest priced golfer. While Moore may not have the best course history here, he has a game that suits this course. If we want to afford one of the top tier players this week, Moore may be someone you want to put in your lineup to save some money.

Tony Finau $9,200 (40-1 to win)

If you decide that you don't want to take any players above $10,000 this week, Finau would be a great choice at $9,200. He has finished in the top 12 here the last two years and this course suits his game as it rewards him for his length off of the tee. Finau is especially valuable on DK due to his high birdie rate and ability to make eagles.

Byeong Hun An $8,000 (66-1 to win)

An is a great driver of the golf ball who at times struggles with his putter. Many players fitting that description have played extremely well at this course in the past (Garcia, DJ, Hoffman, Finau, Bradley, etc). I think we might be able to get him at reduced ownership this week based on the fact that he is priced near some players who have been on fire lately (Cauley, Holmes and Tway) and some popular names (Snedeker, Schwartzel, Woodland and Henley). Look for An to be in the mix come Sunday. He might even be worth throwing a few shekels on at 66-1.

One-and-Done

Well, I'm sure there was not much movement in the standings of your one and done league last week based on the weekend carnage of many of the stars. This week, I think the picks will be fairly spread out. Here are three players to consider:

Dustin Johnson (5-1 to win)

If you still have him left to use this year, I'm guessing you are probably going to save him for the US Open. However, you may want to use him here because I expect very few people to take him this week and a victory could jump you up the leaderboard in your league. We all know how well DJ is playing right now. Add to that the fact that he hasn't finished worse than 20th in his last six appearances here and you have yourself a pretty solid chance at victory this week.

Brooks Koepka (20-1 to win)

I think he will be the most picked player this week. He lost here in a playoff last year and has been playing great the last few weeks. When course history and great recent form collide that usually yields a good result.

Patrick Reed (40-1 to win)

Reed has been showing a few signs of life lately (such as at the Wells Fargo). I'm not sure he will be chosen much this week since he has missed the cut in both his appearances here. However, when analyzing his current stats we see vast improvement compared to the beginning of this year. His recent stats are almost back to where they were when he claimed himself to be a “top 5 player in the world”.

Longshot of the Week: Danny Lee (150-1 to win)

 

Let me start by saying that Danny Lee is a very erratic player. He usually either misses the cut or finishes in the top 20. I think that this week will be one of those top 20 weeks as a lot of signs are pointing his way. He was born in South Korea so he may be inspired by his fellow countrymen’s victory at the Players. Las Colinas is Lee’s home course as he resides only a few minutes away. You can tell he is comfortable here by his three top 20 finishes in five starts. Lee is sneaky good when he is on. People forget that he was one of the top 30 players on Tour just a few years ago. At 125-1 to win, he could provide a big payday come Sunday.