Paulie's Picks: 2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Off to Bay Hill we go! With the event being hosted at Bay Hill for such a long time, we have a lot of data and course history to comb through. There are a lot of players who have had success at this track over the years which will make this week’s decisions very difficult.

DraftKings

There is a lot of value on DraftKings this week. Below are three players that you can stack together and still have plenty of money leftover for some of the top players in the field:

Charles Howell III $6,900

Howell is an absolute must play this week. He should be priced in the mid $8000’s so we have to take advantage of the savings he provides us this week. Howell has recorded top 50 finishes in his last 7 starts at Bay Hill. He has made 10 consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour with seven top 15’s in that span. Howell will pretty much guarantee you a cut made and a decent chance at a top 25 finish which is more than you can ask for at a $6,900 salary.

Kevin Na $7,600

Na is fresh off a MC at the Valspar which may temper his ownership percentage this week a bit. I’m giving Na a pass on his performance last week due to the fact that he was sick the entire week and was forced to withdraw from the Pro-Am at the Valspar. Prior to last week, Na made all of his cuts in 2017 including two top 20 finishes. Na’s performance at Bay Hill is undeniable as he has six straight top 30’s including five top 15’s. At $7,600, I feel like Na provides a lot of consistency and value.

Wesley Bryan $7,100

Bryan, the best player on the 2016 Web.com Tour, has been on fire as of late. He has recorded three straight top seven finishes. Bryan will continue to knock on victory’s doorstep, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win in the near future. More on Wesley Bryan.

One-and-Done

This is the time of the year where the picks become difficult. Do you choose a stud for a non-major or do you maybe choose a European player who maybe won’t play much in the US? Here are three players you should consider this week:

Tyrrell Hatton

Hatton will be playing a limited number of events in the US this year and this may be the perfect spot to use him if you want to go against the grain a bit with your pick. Hatton has five straight top 13 finishes worldwide. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his name on the front page of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Justin Rose

This may be one of the best spots to choose Justin Rose this year. Rose has played very consistent at Bay Hill throughout his career with four top 15s in his last five starts here. Rose has been showing flashes of brilliance which remind me back to his US Open victory a few years back. He has three top fives in his last five starts.

Henrik Stenson

The only hesitancy with using Stenson this week is determining if you would rather use him at a major or the Players which have larger purses. Stenson has been automatic at Bay Hill. He has made his last seven cuts at Bay Hill and hasn’t finished worse than 8th in his last four appearances here.  Ignoring his WD in Mexico, Stenson has six straight top 10s worldwide. It also doesn’t hurt that the Orlando resident, Stenson, will be sleeping in his own bed this week.

Longshot Pick of the Week: Jason Kokrak (80-1)

Kokrak is the prototypical horse for a course. He has finished 20th, 6th and 4th in his last three appearances at Bay Hill. The course suits his eye of the tee and he should be able to gain strokes on the field this week based on his long, straight driving. Many people will overlook Kokrak after his 58th place finish at the Valspar last week. Not many people realized that Kokrak was on the verge of a top 20 after finishing the first two rounds at 3 under. He struggled over the weekend which happens when a player tries to press at Innisbrook. Kokrak has been solid in his prior two starts with top 25s at Riviera and Pebble Beach.

 

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