Paulie's Picks: BMW Championship

This week, the top 70 players are playing in the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick. This course requires length of the tee, especially given the expected soft conditions. Since there is no cut this week and limited course history (only played here once previously back in 2012), I'm going to focus on a few key stats: driving distance and birdie percentage. Here are my picks for this week:

Rory McIlroy - $11,900

Bet you didn't see that one coming, haha. He is just too good to pass up this week. He just won after combining a display of length of the tee with a multitude of birdies (24 birds and 1 eagle last week). In his 2012 victory at Crooked Stick, he took advantage of his length and had 23 birdies and 2 eagles. On top of that, he leads the Tour in 2016 in birdie or better percentage.

Ryan Palmer - $6,800

Despite his 45th place finish here in 2012, he was near the top of the field in birdies with 22. He has finished in the top 25 in the first two playoff events, with an impressive 20 birdies last week and 13 at the demanding Bethpage Black. In 2016, Palmer ranks 13rd in both birdies and driving distance.

Hudson Swafford - $7,100

I'm doubling down on Swafford this week as he once again checks all the boxes. In 2016, he is 8th in driving distance and 21st in birdies. In his last 11 events he has averaged 16 birdies and hasn't finished outside the top 50. Look for him to be a steady option in your lineup this week.

Jason Kokrak - $7,500

Kokrak could be the ultimate dark horse this week and many people will automatically pass him over at that price point. When you dig deeper, you realize why he is priced as such. Fresh off top 10s in both of the first two playoff events, Kokrak looks to continue that play this week. His game suits Crooked Stick as he is 6th in driving distance in 2016.