Paulie's Picks: 2017 Shell Houston Open

With Augusta right around the corner, many players will look to earn a spot in the field with a victory in Houston or tidy up their games in preparation for this year's first major. Let’s dive into this week’s picks:

DraftKings:

Tony Finau $7,100

One of the key metrics I look at each week is how a player is priced in relation to his odds in Vegas. This week Finau is 50th in DraftKings pricing, yet 9th in odds to win at 35-1. We need to capitalize on that discrepancy. Finau’s history at this course will not amaze you with a MC and 42nd in his two starts. Don’t let that fool you. This course rewards a long hitter with the wide fairways and short rough. He has been gaining momentum all season and is fully rested after a week off (was first alternate at Dell Match Play). Most recently he finished 27th at Bay Hill and 5th at the Valspar.

Phil Mickelson $8,900

Mickelson is your typical horse for this course. He has finished in the top 17 in his last six starts here highlighted by a victory in 2011. He has top 25s in seven of his last nine starts on Tour. This week will be the perfect time for Mickelson to catch fire heading into Augusta.

Peter Uihlein $7,300

I will continue to ride the Uihlein bandwagon until DraftKings decides to price him where he belongs. I have been rostering him week after week on the European Tour and featured him in last week’s article. Uihlein is too consistent and has too much upside to be priced this low. His 5th place finish last week in Puerto Rico was his fourth top seven finish this calendar year. Uihlein is 10th in the field in birdie rate which will help the DraftKings scoring of your team. Look for Uihlein to finish top 25 this week with 18+ birdies.

One-and-Done:

As we progress through the season and approach some of the largest purses in golf, you have to be careful not to burn your top players in weeks when other viable options are available. This week there are a ton of options to choose from:

Russell Henley

Henley is a horse for this course. He has finished in the top seven in his last 3 starts at the Houston Open. He has six top 25s in his last nine starts and is itching for a victory to get into the Masters next week. Henley has shown through his career that when he is on he can take on the best in the world. You might just see that this week.

J.B. Holmes

This event is one of Holmes’ favorites. The wide fairways and short rough fit his eye. He has four top 12s in his last 5 starts at this event highlighted by a victory in 2015. He has been lurking over the past few months with nine straight top 35 finishes in stroke play events on Tour. Look for Holmes to be on the front page of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Jon Rahm

If you believe in the hot hand approach, then Rahm is your guy this week. He finished runner up to DJ at the Dell Match Play last week capping off an epic run over his last five events. He won at Torrey Pines and followed that up with a 16th at Phoenix, 5th at Pebble Beach and 3rd at WGC Mexico. Even though he has not competed in the Houston Open before, the wide fairways and short rough should be to his liking. There is a very good chance that Rahm picks up his second win of the year this week.

Longshot

D.A. Points 150-1

Two simple reasons to ride Points at 150-1 this week:

  • Winner last week at Puerto Rico

  • Winner of the Houston Open in 2013
 

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